I was talking with the Faculty Council recently about this year’s term-to-term retention rates when one council member suggested that I should share these numbers with the campus community.  Of course, this was a very good idea – and something that I should have done several weeks ago. So, with apologies to everyone who cares about retention (AKA everyone), here we go.

In the table below, I’ve listed the fall-to-winter term and fall-to-spring term retention rates for each class as well as the four-year averages for these data points in order to give some of these numbers context.

	Fall-to-Winter Term Retention		Fall-to-Spring Term Retention
Class	4 Yr. Avg.	This Year	4 Yr. Avg.	This Year
1st Year	96.5%	95.7%	92.9%	93.4%
2nd Year	97.9%	98.3%	95.5%	95.4%
3rd Year	98.3%	97.1%	97.9%	96.7%
4th Year	98.3%	97.4%	93.6%	93.3%

There are a couple of things that jump off the page immediately when trying to take in all of these numbers at once. First, breaking retention down to this level of detail can make it pretty overwhelming. It is easy to get a little vertigo staring at all the different percentages, wondering how in the world anyone decides which ones are good or bad or somewhere in between.

Second, the numbers – as well as the differences between any particular number and its corresponding four-year average – bounce around a bit. For example, although the first year students’ fall-to-winter retention rate was slightly below the four-year average, their fall-to-spring retention rate exceeds the four-year norm. Conversely, while the second year students’ fall-to-winter retention rate was higher than the four-year average, their fall-to-spring retention rate ensures that we don’t get a big head.

Third, it’s not necessarily true that a given year’s retention rate below the four-year average is uniformly a bad thing. For example, over the last several years we’ve been watching the number of seniors who finish a term early inch upward. It seemed inevitable that this would happen at some point with the increasing number of college and AP credits that incoming students bring to Augustana. And as the cost of college has jumped, we probably shouldn’t be surprised at all if a few more students want to avoid that 12th term of tuition by graduating after the winter term. I get that fewer students = less tuition = budget reductions = more stress. But if our mission is to educate, and if a student has completed all that we have asked him or her to do, then I’m not sure we can be all that disappointed that they don’t stay for the spring term – especially since we haven’t designed the broader Augustana experience to culminate in any unique way during the spring of the senior year. This is not a criticism one way or another; rather I only point to this example to demonstrate how complicated this retention conversation can be.

In the end, making accurate sense of any particular within-year retention number requires a black belt in withholding judgment, a hefty dose of context, and a battle-tested nervous system. In the end, retention data is sort of like the “check engine” light in your car. When it lights up it might mean that the only thing that doesn’t work is the fuse that controls the “check engine” light. Or it might mean that something serious is going wrong under the hood and you could be in big trouble if you don’t take your car to a mechanic today. Either way, you don’t panic just because the light comes on. At the same time, you don’t shrug it off. You take a deeper look at what you are doing and try to figure out if there is anything you could do better.

Make it a good day.

Mark